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Iran's Nuclear and Missile Potential

6.8.2009 - The EastWest Institute, May 2009
A respected international think-tank issued an analysis elaborated collectively by a group of distinguished American and Russian experts. Their findings can be summarized
as follows:  

I. Now and for the years to come, Iran does not pose a real threat to Europe,
let alone the United States. Teheran lacks both necessary technologies (see for example p. 8, 11) as well as the motivation to attack (p. 3, 13, 17).

II. The missile defense components currently proposed for central Europe suffer from various “serious weaknesses” (p. 17) and could not provide a dependable protection. The THAAD system would probably serve better (p. 16).

III. The missile defense components proposed for central Europe challenge Russia's security interests. The X-band radar in Czech republic will be able to collect information on Russian ICBMs (p. 15) while the ten interceptors in Poland could catch some Russian ICBMs (p. 15). Moreover, the number of interceptors could quickly increase in the future. 

IV. The Bush's plan for European missile defense represents an impediment to more needed greater U.S.-Russian cooperation, especially in regard to Iran and further strategic arms reductions (p. 8, 16, 17). Therefore, the suspension of this plan is implicitly recommended.

To quote from the analysis itself:

there is at present no IRBM/ICBM threat from Iran and that such a threat, even if it were to emerge, is not imminent. Moreover, if such a threat were forthcoming, the proposed European missile defenses would not provide a dependable defense against it. It does not make sense, therefore, to proceed with deployment of the European missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic." (p. 17)

Source: Iran's Nuclear and Missile Potential. A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and Russian Technical Experts. The EastWest Institute, May 2009 (17 pages) 

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